Variance-Reduced Diffusion Sampling via Conditional Score Expectation Identity

We introduce and prove a \textbf{Conditional Score Expectation (CSE)} identity: an exact relation for the marginal score of affine diffusion processes that links scores across time via a conditional expectation under the forward dynamics. Motivated by this identity, we propose a CSE-based statistical estimator for the score using a Self-Normalized Importance Sampling (SNIS) procedure with prior samples and forward noise. We analyze its relationship to the standard Tweedie estimator, proving anti-correlation for Gaussian targets and establishing the same behavior for general targets in the small time-step regime. Exploiting this structure, we derive a variance-minimizing blended score estimator given by a state--time dependent convex combination of the CSE and Tweedie estimators. Numerical experiments show that this optimal-blending estimator reduces variance and improves sample quality for a fixed computational budget compared to either baseline. We further extend the framework to Bayesian inverse problems via likelihood-informed SNIS weights, and demonstrate improved reconstruction quality and sample diversity on high-dimensional image reconstruction tasks and PDE-governed inverse problems.